Chance of turnblocks

I just made a statistic where I evaluated the chance of a first turn action to block a second turn action. I did it for 50 turns but it shows the same confusing results in micro as in macro caliber.

Player 1 does two random moves which doesn't affect the opponents cities, then he moves a few units out of his capital, without attacking the opponent.
Player 2 attacks the capital as first action.
Both players end turn.

The results were: (Amount of working turnblocks / amount of all moves): (3/10); (3/10); (3/10); (3/10); (3/10) -> (15/50) -> 30% chance.

This means the attacking of the capital as first action has only a 30% chance to block the third action of the opponent. Shouldn't the chance to block increase instead of decrease? E.g. first action to block first action 50%, first action to block second action 66%...

Erm... What?

Actually, I think turnblocking is only possible by fulfilling a set of criteria for the move and isn't based on chance at all. The developers should be consulted on this but I'm pretty sure it's not random.

作者： Runway1R, 03.11.2011 at 08:10

Erm... What?

If you have nothing productive to contribute, please don't post at all.

Well a short statement of Ivan or Amok would be helpful. Since NO ONE completely understood the turnblock mechanics (yes even not Cow), which is also not possible without being the programmer, a list of all affecting factors would be useful.
Actually, since so many people asked about the mechanics and pmed me for information about multiple-blocks etc. i wanted to write a ultimate block guide. But when I made some statistics myself it didn't turn out as expected. So Amok, please undertake.

作者： Guest, 04.11.2011 at 12:03

Well a short statement of Ivan or Amok would be helpful. Since NO ONE completely understood the turnblock mechanics (yes even not Cow), which is also not possible without being the programmer, a list of all affecting factors would be useful.
Actually, since so many people asked about the mechanics and pmed me for information about multiple-blocks etc. i wanted to write a ultimate block guide. But when I made some statistics myself it didn't turn out as expected. So Amok, please undertake.

It would be nice if the mechanics for other factors could be published (if they have not already) such as turn mechanics, likelihood of rare units etc.